Economist: U.S. may see double-dip recession by late 2010 - South Florida Business Journal:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’re actuallh high since double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economyg grows 95 percent of the time, said the chamber’s Marty He predicted that the current economic downturn will end arounde September but that the unemployment rate will remain high througgh the first half of next Investment won’t snap back as quickly as it usuallyh does after a Regalia said.
Inflation, however, looms as a potentialp problem because of thefederaol government’s huge budget deficits and the massive amount of dollars pumped into the economy by the , he If this stimulus is not unwoundr once the economy begins to recover, highefr interest rates could choke off improvemenf in the housing market and busines s investment, he said. “The economu has got to be running on its own by the middl e ofnext year,” Regalia said. Almost every major inflationary periodin U.S. history was precededc by heavy debt he noted. The chances of a double-dip recession will be lowert if Ben Bernanke is reappointed chairman of the Federal Regalia said.
If President Obama appoints hiseconomic adviser, Larruy Summers, to chair the Fed, that would signal the monetargy spigot would remain open for a longer he said. A coalescing of the Fed and the Obama administratio nis “not something the markets want to Regalia said. Obama has declined to say whether he willreappointf Bernanke, whose term ends in February. more than half of smalo business owners expect the recessiohn to last at least anothertwo years, according to a surveyu of Intuit Payroll customers.
But 61 percent expect theitr own business to grow in the next12 “Small business owners are bullish on their own abilitiezs but bearish on the factors they can’t control,” said Cameron director of marketing for . “Even in the gloomiesy economy, there are opportunities to seize.” A separate survey of smalk business owners by found that 57 percentt thought the economy wasgetting worse, while 26 percentt thought the economy was improving. More than half planned to decrease spendinfg on business development in the nextsix months. on the U.S. Chambetr of Commerce’s Web site.